Aspen Today

A Google Doc roundtable throws cold water and rocket fuel on the same question: are we watching a genuine platform shift—or a historic misallocation of capital? The optimism case is simple: the 2017 “tabula rasa agents” era gave way to Transformers + scaling laws, producing general-purpose models—and now agents are back, riding on pretrained foundations (“this is the worst it will ever be”). The skepticism case is even simpler: economies don’t grow at AI-speed. If GDP expands ~2–4% annually, the spending base is arithmetically constrained—and the application layer still looks small next to the infrastructure binge. One sharp mismatch: roughly $400B in Nvidia chip sales versus < $100B in end-user AI product revenue, plus the reminder that total SaaS spend is < $1T. Capex can become the “escalator” problem—everyone must spend just to avoid falling behind, with no durable margins to show for it. Meanwhile, the productivity evidence is muddy: a widely-cited METR result suggests coding tools can slow experienced developers on familiar codebases, even as internal surveys report big self-perceived gains. The most actionable consensus lands somewhere else: energy. If AI demand does not stop climbing, infrastructure—especially power—becomes the real bottleneck, and the real policy story.

City officials unveiled ambitious plans for a comprehensive downtown renovation that will reshape the urban landscape of 1100. The $200 million development project encompasses new residential units, state-of-the-art office space, and a sprawling public plaza designed to serve as a community gathering point. The initiative represents the largest urban renewal effort in the city's recent history. Construction is slated to begin next month, with completion expected within three years. Local business leaders have praised the project as a catalyst for economic growth, while community advocates emphasize the importance of affordable housing components. The development will create an estimated 500 construction jobs and 1,200 permanent positions upon completion. City planners project the project will generate significant tax revenue while revitalizing a previously underutilized area of downtown. Public hearings on the final design elements are scheduled for next week.